Hunting R

The Toa of Between Golf and Trading

Archive for October 12th, 2006

Just looking around

Posted by huntingr on October 12, 2006

I saw on both Lifehacker and Trader Mikes site that everyone is checking their “blog juice”. Now I have been trying this whole blog thing out for three months now. In that time I have about 275 hits. That boils down to about 7 people per day that look at thisblog . The fact is it probably closer to 5, because I keep pulling it up to do my day logs and see how it looks. So now you thinking to yourself that five people per day – man he must have some juice. Well here it is:

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After seeing this I started looking around because the talk on the street is that people can come in and steal my “content” and use it on their blog. With a “Blog Juice” rating like mine I have to be very careful. I’m starting to get worry about how I’ll handel comment spam, when and if I ever get any. I’ll deal with that bridge when I cross it. I may have to see if Trader Mikes guy is for hire. Until then I’ll just wait for my first ever comment spam.

But I do agree with someone going in a leaving a comment about something and just more or less bitching about. Now I live in a state where people love to bitch about everything. They even have parts of movies removed so that it fits their tastes better. But I don’t have much for a person who is bitching just to bitch. I have an idea, if you don’t like it don’t read it. Not bad hu?

For all you probability people out there Fickle Trader gave all of us a great game to play:

I’ve won free lunches and all kinds of change from people by playing a similar game. It works like this: after buying in for a 3:1 jackpot payout, the buyer flips a coin and I flip a coin. The jackpot pays out if both coins land heads-up. There are 3 possible outcomes to this game, let’s look at them for a $1 buyin:

 

* Two heads land. I keep the buyin and give the $3 jackpot, so -$2 for me.
* One lands heads and one lands tails. I keep the buyin, so +$1 for me.
* Two tails land. I keep the buyin, so +$1 for me.

 

When negotiating the game, it should be pitched this way so as to represent a game of pure chance with 3:1 payout on 3 possible outcomes. However, the probability of the outcome with one coin landing heads and the other one tails is actually twice high as the probability of the other two outcomes, giving me an edge. People who buy US stocks usually have a similar edge: the market’s natural upward drift. Unless, of course, they trade too frequently thus reducing portfolio correlation to market direction and large transaction costs to crowd out the edge, or fail to diversify enough for the edge to materialize.

On the note of games, I found a Yahoo Widget that is like the show, “Deal, or No Deal“. It’s kind of fun.

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Posted in Life, stock trading | 5 Comments »